Max Fried, the standout pitcher for the Atlanta Braves, emerges as a compelling figure in the 2024 baseball season. His on-field performance is noteworthy, boasting a career record of 62 wins and 26 losses, an impressive ERA of 3.03, and a nearly equal strikeouts-to-innings pitched ratio. Quietly, he has distinguished himself as one of the top pitchers under 30 in the National League. As he approaches his first major free agency year in 2025, his statistics and track record draw comparisons to Blake Snell, the 2023 NL Cy Young winner.
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Fried has consistently delivered exceptional performances in past seasons. Despite contending with injuries in 2023, he managed an outstanding 8-1 record with a 2.55 ERA. His ability to overcome challenges underscores his resilience and determination, qualities that are likely to benefit him in the upcoming season.
What Should We Anticipate from Fried in 2024?
As the Braves’ second-ranked pitcher behind the rapidly rising star Spencer Strider, Fried is poised for a standout year. He enters the season in good health, supported by a formidable lineup that promises significant run support. There is ample reason to believe Fried could achieve a 20-win season.
According to Fangraphs ZIPs projections, Fried is expected to start 32 games. Given his career win percentage of .705, it’s reasonable to anticipate 20 wins this season. His highest single-season win total to date is 17 in 2019, so if he maintains his health, 2024 could mark a career high in wins.
Projections suggest Fried’s ERA will be around 3.15 in 177 innings pitched in 2024. However, over his last 44 starts spanning two seasons, he has maintained an impressive ERA of 2.51, putting him on par with pitchers like Jacob DeGrom and Shohei Ohtani in terms of efficiency. With free agency looming, Fried is expected to sustain this level of performance in 2024.
Considering his career average of 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings and an anticipated 177 innings pitched this season, an over/under target of 160 strikeouts seems reasonable. Betting on the over seems prudent; this season represents Fried’s opportunity to secure a lucrative contract.
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Fried’s Future with the Braves Beyond 2024
The Braves typically avoid overpaying players whose prime years are behind them. If Fried delivers the anticipated performance and the Braves clinch the NL, they are likely to let him walk at the end of the season. This decision would benefit both Fried and the Braves organization, as Fried would secure a substantial deal while the Braves maximize their investment in a 30-year-old pitcher.
Speculation arises due to Fried’s roots on the West Coast, suggesting potential interest from teams such as the Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, San Francisco Giants, and San Diego Padres. However, teams like those in Texas or the Arizona Diamondbacks could also be contenders. Such speculation adds an intriguing dimension to the upcoming season, as Fried’s performance may attract attention from these teams.
One thing remains certain: if Fried replicates a season akin to Blake Snell’s, he will become the most sought-after free agent on the market, likely commanding a contract worth $30 million per year—an incentive that should motivate the Braves to get the best from him this season.