For three consecutive years, baseball has featured a standout free agent whose anticipated contract captures the sport’s attention for months.
First, it was Aaron Judge during his 62-home run season. Next, Shohei Ohtani became a sensation with his exceptional pitching and hitting. Now, it’s Juan Soto’s turn.
Soto, who rejoined the New York Yankees’ lineup after a brief absence due to forearm inflammation, is enjoying a stellar season in his first year with the team. He’ll be just 26 in October, suggesting a long-term contract is likely. His agent, Scott Boras, is poised to negotiate the biggest deal of his career following a season where many of his clients accepted shorter contracts.
Soto is one of the best hitters in the game, playing for the Yankees, and entering his prime, with Boras, MLB’s top agent, managing the negotiations. This combination sets the stage for another potentially record-breaking contract in baseball.
What will Soto’s contract be? What records might it set? Which teams are in the running? We asked 28 MLB executives, agents, and insiders to project Soto’s contract this winter.
Soto’s Potential Contract:
Here are the 28 predictions, grouped by total value:
– Under $400 million (3): 1 year/$50 million, 8 years/$296 million, 10 years/$350 million
– $400-$499 million (8):10 years/$400 million, 10 years/$450 million, 11 years/$450 million, 12 years/$450 million, 13 years/$470 million, 12 years/$480 million (3x)
– $500-$599 million (14): 12 years/$500 million (2x), 13 years/$500 million (2x), 14 years/$500 million, 15 years/$500 million, 13 years/$502 million, 12 years/$510 million, 12 years/$525 million, 12 years/$528 million, 13 years/$540 million, 12 years/$550 million, 12 years/$552 million, 14 years/$588 million
– At least $600 million (3): 14 years/$600 million, 12 years/$605 million, 10 years/$655 million
The average of all 28 projections is 11.6 years and $482.5 million, with a $41.4 million average annual value (AAV). Removing the four highest and lowest outliers gives an average of:
– Years: 12.4
– Total guarantee: $498.4 million
– AAV: $40.4 million
The median projection is 13 years, $500 million, aligning with industry expectations. Half of the projections are between $500 million and $599 million, and three predict over $600 million, indicating that 61% (17 of 28 respondents) believe Soto will secure at least $500 million, potentially setting a record. Ohtani’s 10-year deal with the Dodgers, adjusted for deferrals, had a net present value (NPV) of $460 million.
One notable outlier suggested a one-year, $50 million deal, reflecting skepticism about Boras’ performance last winter.
Most respondents believe the contract must exceed Judge’s $40 million AAV and aim to surpass Ohtani’s adjusted AAV of over $46 million. Achieving a $500 million guarantee is also a common benchmark.
With five months until Soto’s free agency, these projections provide a starting point for understanding how teams will value him and what factors will shape his contract.
Comparable Free Agents:
Finding comparables for Soto is challenging, given his unique accomplishments since debuting at 19 in 2018. Only Ohtani’s deal with the Dodgers and Mike Trout’s $426.5 million extension with the Angels exceed the recent $300 million-plus contracts by Judge, Corey Seager, Gerrit Cole, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Soto is expected to surpass these.
Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are the closest comparables. Both signed long-term, high-value contracts at a young age. Soto, however, has outperformed them, and these deals were made five years ago.
Boras highlighted the difficulty of comparing such deals in a record revenue market, referring to “centurion” players like Soto who will be among the top 100 in history.
Market Variables:
Adjusting Harper and Machado’s deals to current revenue and WAR isn’t straightforward. Instead, exploring current market forces and team psychology might be more instructive.
Unlike Blake Snell or Cody Bellinger, who took shorter deals, Soto’s free agency will likely attract competitive bidding. Last winter, some big spenders were out on nine-figure deals, citing rebuilding, efficiency, or the regional sports network crisis. Boras believes the new streaming values will encourage spending, despite short-term losses.
This winter will test that theory. Teams will need to offer record-setting deals, possibly over $500 million, for Soto. The Dodgers spent a billion dollars last winter on Ohtani and Yamamoto, but likely won’t repeat. Another team must step up.
Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million deal, despite no MLB experience, suggests Soto will also benefit from being young. Soto and Boras will consider various contract options, including opt-outs and maximizing AAV.
Potential Suitors:
Early predictions favor the Yankees and Mets as top contenders, followed by the Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals, San Francisco Giants, and Toronto Blue Jays.
The Yankees passed on Boras clients last winter but have a history with him, signing Carlos Rodon and Gerrit Cole. Soto’s fit in the Yankees’ lineup, with several big contracts already in place, makes them likely to pursue him aggressively.
The Mets are harder to predict. David Stearns, their president of baseball operations, has a modest spending history. How he and owner Steve Cohen approach Soto’s free agency, with three Boras clients already on the roster, is a major question.
Soto’s free agency will reveal much about the state of baseball, potentially setting new records and illuminating team strategies.
