The Washington Commanders appear highly likely to secure a top-four pick, possibly even as high as the second spot, in the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft. This strongly suggests they may opt for a quarterback selection. While this could prove to be a wise decision, it’s essential not to dismiss the potential of the current player on the team.
Certainly, Sam Howell’s performance has taken a significant downturn since Thanksgiving. In the last six games, all of which ended in losses for the Commanders, he threw 10 interceptions and managed only seven touchdowns (three passing, four rushing). Interestingly, there was a plan to bench him in favor of Jacoby Brissett against the 49ers, but Brissett got injured in practice.
It’s crucial to note that during the initial ten games of the season, Howell displayed qualities of a franchise quarterback. Following an impressive 312-yard, three-touchdown, and turnover-free performance against the Seattle Seahawks on Nov. 12, he led the NFL in passing yards and “big-time throws,” according to Pro Football Focus.
The apparent decline in Howell’s performance isn’t indicative of a sudden loss of football skills. Rather, it seems to be a result of diminished confidence caused by a team and coaching staff that seems to have given up on the season. A change in surroundings could potentially restore his confidence. Those quick to dismiss his potential might be influenced by the current moment and may not fully appreciate the risks associated with drafting a first-round quarterback.
It’s tempting to be swayed by the allure of promising prospects, especially in today’s culture of instant gratification dominating the sports scene. In this environment, where patience is scarce, and individuals are seen as interchangeable, it’s essential to remember that the draft is unpredictable, and investing in a quarterback is a significant commitment. Historical data indicates that the odds of success are higher when a team is already well-positioned for victory.
Surprises like Patrick Mahomes, chosen as the 10th pick in 2017, and Lamar Jackson, the 32nd pick in 2018, illustrate that exceptional talents can emerge unexpectedly. Even the 2022 draft’s final pick, Brock Purdy, selected by the 49ers, demonstrated potential. What ties them together is that they were drafted by teams with solid foundations, just a quarterback away from Super Bowl contention.
Contrastingly, the success rate of quarterbacks drafted by teams in the midst of rebuilding is notably lower. The case of Bryce Young, the 2023 No. 1 overall pick struggling in Carolina, exemplifies this trend. While Young may still overcome challenges, his redemption is contingent on the improvement of the team around him, mirroring the trajectories of past picks like Justin Fields and Tua Tagovailoa, who were initially labeled as disappointments but flourished once their supporting cast was enhanced.
If the Commanders opt to select a quarterback in the upcoming draft, following a trajectory akin to Fields or Tagovailoa could present the best opportunity. This move carries significant risk but also holds the potential for substantial rewards, contingent on the team swiftly assembling support around the new quarterback.
On another note, it’s worth considering that Howell might possess the same trajectory potential. Had he encountered a season-ending injury after the Seahawks game, he would likely be viewed as the unquestionable future quarterback for D.C. in the next season. The prevailing opinion that he is damaged goods, influenced by recent events, may not necessarily reflect the absolute truth.
Unless Washington manages to secure USC’s Caleb Williams, the presumed top pick with transformative superstar potential, the most prudent approach for the Commanders in the quarterback position this offseason would be to give Howell an opportunity to build on the promise he demonstrated at one point during the season. Simultaneously, the team should concentrate on addressing other areas of concern, such as bolstering the offensive line and fortifying the defensive backfield.
The optimal outcome would involve Howell reverting to his early-season performance levels, benefiting from a mental reset and the guidance of a new coaching staff, all while the Commanders make improvements across the team. On the flip side, the less favorable scenario entails him not proving to be the ideal quarterback, but it’s noteworthy that the 2025 draft will also feature new quarterback prospects.
Washington has the option to choose a quarterback if they are confident that a new leadership team can swiftly construct a roster to maximize the selected player’s potential. However, retaining Howell should be viewed as a viable and more than acceptable Plan B, offering continuity and the chance for further development.
