Texas and Arizona State are set to face off in the College Football Playoff Peach Bowl quarterfinal on New Year’s Day. Here’s a look at the latest prediction for the matchup, courtesy of an expert football simulation model.
Texas enters the game with a 12-2 record after a decisive two-touchdown victory over Clemson at home in the first round, powered by two players rushing for over 100 yards.
Meanwhile, Arizona State, the reigning Big 12 champion, earned a first-round bye, allowing star running back Cam Skattebo to rest. Skattebo has been a standout this season, amassing 1,568 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns.
Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s explore the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index simulation model.
This advanced model runs 20,000 simulations for every NCAA college football game, analyzing key statistics from both teams and determining winners based on the projected scoring margin for each game.
Texas vs. Arizona State prediction
According to the models, Arizona State isn’t favored to win the game but did come out on top in 20.3% of simulations.
Overall, the Longhorns secured victory in 15,940 of the model’s simulations, while the Sun Devils triumphed in the remaining 4,060 scenarios.
What does this mean for the expected margin of victory? The model projects Texas to be 11.9 points better than Arizona State under current team conditions.
However, even with this projected margin, it wouldn’t be enough for the Longhorns to cover the spread against the Sun Devils.
What the bettors say
A slight majority of bettors anticipate the Sun Devils will challenge the Longhorns more than expected, based on the latest spread consensus picks.
Arizona State has received 54% of the bets, either to pull off an upset or to keep the margin of defeat within two touchdowns.
Meanwhile, 46% of wagers predict Texas will win by at least two touchdowns, successfully covering the sizable point spread.
College Football Power Index
The Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model evaluate team strength and forecast future performance.
These rankings and score predictions are derived from 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, factoring in key analytics such as past scores, opponent quality, team talent, recruiting, and schedule difficulty.
Unlike other rankings based purely on talent, FPI ranks teams based on their projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.
