Over the weekend, the Yankees secured former NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt on a one-year, $12.5 million contract, designating him as their starting first baseman for the 2025 season. Despite his accolades, Goldschmidt is coming off a subpar season, with a 100 wRC+, 22 home runs, a declining OBP, and an increasing strikeout rate. These struggles cast doubt on his short-term future in the league, raising the question: why did the Yankees choose him to address a position that posted a league-worst .619 OPS last season?
Paul Goldschmidt presents a challenge that will put the Yankees’ evaluation and coaching abilities to the test, but with the right adjustments, he has the potential to deliver unexpectedly positive results.
Can Paul Goldschmidt Revive His Performance with the Yankees?
Paul Goldschmidt and the St. Louis Cardinals fell short of expectations last season, but the signs of a significant decline were evident as early as 2023. His wRC+ plummeted from 175 to 122, marking one of the steepest declines for a hitter following an MVP season. This regression was driven by a drop in his in-zone contact rates and a noticeable decline in his game power. His slugging percentage fell sharply from .578 to .447, even as the league-wide slugging percentage rose from .395 to .414—the highest it had been since 2020.
Goldschmidt’s decline persisted into 2024, as his power remained stagnant while his strikeouts surged, posting a 26.5% K% alongside a career-low 7.2% walk rate. A potential factor in his diminished plate discipline and contact rates was his increased pull rate, suggesting he began making earlier swing decisions. Swinging prematurely can impair a hitter’s ability to track the ball effectively, leading to more frequent chases or outright misses due to difficulty picking up pitch movement.
Hitters rarely recover from such a steep decline, and it’s difficult to envision Goldschmidt regaining the swing speeds he had during his peak years. This raises concerns about how he’ll perform in 2025. Without improved swing speeds, he’ll need to enhance his plate discipline and contact rates—an extremely challenging task for a player at age 37. For these reasons, I’ve been fairly pessimistic about his outlook for the upcoming season. However, there might be opportunities for the Yankees to make adjustments that could lead to improvements in some of his plate skills, particularly with the advantages offered by Yankee Stadium.
This spray chart shows Paul Goldschmidt’s performance against 95+ MPH pitches, and it’s clear that there isn’t much pulled contact in the air. What stands out is his exceptional ability to drive the ball to right field. In this sample alone, he would have added four more home runs to his total. With three flyouts and one double turning into four home runs, this would result in an additional 14 total bases, boosting his SLG% from .398 to .522.
If Goldschmidt can incorporate more ospposite-field flyballs into his game, he might avoid the need to swing earlier, which would help improve his walk and contact rates. However, Busch Stadium has never been ideal for this kind of approach. Last season, the veteran first baseman posted a troubling .378 SLG% at home with an 85 wRC+, but his performance could have been significantly better if he had played his home games at the more hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, with its more accommodating dimensions.
By adding six home runs to his total—replacing five flyouts and a triple—Goldschmidt’s SLG% would rise from .378 to .450 based on this data. While this doesn’t account for what might have been a hit in St. Louis but wouldn’t have been in New York (and vice versa), much of the improvement stems from his opposite-field power, which goes underappreciated in Busch Stadium due to the park’s dimensions not favoring that approach.
Targeting the right-field porch could offer Paul Goldschmidt a mental trigger to track the ball more effectively as it approaches the plate, leading to improved swing decisions and possibly reducing swing-and-miss situations. While I’m doubtful about his ability to make this adjustment with the Yankees, Steamer’s optimistic projections for Goldschmidt suggest there are reasons to have confidence in his bat.
The Yankees, like all 30 Major League Baseball teams, have access to information that we don’t, particularly biomechanical data, which is crucial for pinpointing swing mechanic issues. I’m sure that Brian Cashman and his baseball operations team are aware of the regressions in plate discipline and contact, and they likely have adjustments in mind to help improve Paul Goldschmidt’s performance.
Older hitters can still improve; for example, Brandon Belt signed a one-year contract with the Blue Jays and posted an OPS above .800, while Matt Carpenter, who had poor contact rates and a negative WAR in 2023, had one of the most impressive 47-game stretches we’ve seen from a hitter in pinstripes. With Cody Bellinger and Ben Rice as backup options, the Yankees could even consider platooning Paul Goldschmidt if necessary.
First base isn’t a concern for the Yankees at the moment; it’s unlikely that Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, and Ben Rice will all underperform at the plate according to any projection system. The Yankees were looking for some power in the lineup, and Paul Goldschmidt offers exactly that from the right-hand side. Now, the front office faces the challenge of finding a reliable OBP threat at second or third base to complete the roster.
